Texas: value gas furnace + AC
Texas · 3 cooling tons · tier ×1 · system ×1 · October ×0.95
- Labor
- $3,035
- Equipment/materials
- $6,056
- Permit allowance
- $270
- Subtotal
- $9,361
- Contingency (10%)
- $936
- Total
- $10,297
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HVAC replacement cost calculator
Data snapshot 2026-09 · HomeTrueCost
Plan a US central HVAC replacement with an itemized estimate for a gas furnace and AC, ducted heat pump, or dual-fuel system. Compare capacity, budget tier, and state. Figures are modeled allowances, not surveyed contractor prices.
What this HVAC estimate includes
A straightforward replacement of a central ducted system with usable existing ducts. The gas furnace + AC option covers both units. Labor is an installation/removal allowance; equipment and ordinary installation materials share one line. Permits are an allowance, not your city's actual fee. Every total includes 10% contingency.
Excluded: major duct replacement, electrical-panel upgrades, new gas service or fuel conversion, hazardous-material remediation, structural repairs, sales tax, financing charges, and rebates. Furnace-only, AC-only, ductless mini-split, and geothermal projects need a separate estimate. Known extra work should be quoted separately rather than absorbed into contingency.
Three worked HVAC budget examples
Illustrative model outputs in USD, not actual installations or surveyed prices. All use October (month 10), data snapshot 2026-09-12, and reusable ducts. Links restore the exact inputs; later data updates can change the figures.
Ohio: mid-range ducted heat pump
Ohio · 3 cooling tons · tier ×1.35 · system ×1.15 · October ×0.95
- Labor
- $5,259
- Equipment/materials
- $8,980
- Permit allowance
- $255
- Subtotal
- $14,494
- Contingency (10%)
- $1,449
- Total
- $15,943
California: premium dual-fuel
California · 4 cooling tons · tier ×2 · system ×1.25 · October ×0.95
- Labor
- $12,895
- Equipment/materials
- $21,839
- Permit allowance
- $480
- Subtotal
- $35,214
- Contingency (10%)
- $3,521
- Total
- $38,735
How the budget is calculated
Labor starts at $3,500, and equipment/materials at $6,500, for a 3-ton gas furnace + AC reference project. Labor uses the state/national HVAC wage ratio; materials use the state goods-price index. Both are multiplied by cooling tons ÷ 3, the selected tier, system factor, and month factor. A state-adjusted $300 permit allowance is added, followed by 10% contingency. Receipt lines round to whole dollars before subtotal and contingency so the displayed total reconciles.
Baselines, linear capacity scaling, tier factors, system factors, seasonal factors, and permit allowance are HomeTrueCost assumptions. BLS wages are employee wages, not contractor billing rates. BEA goods prices cover consumer goods broadly, not HVAC equipment specifically. The sensitivity band applies cross-state index differences to this model; it is not a confidence interval or a guarantee that local bids will fit.
Prepared by Soufiane at HomeTrueCost. Editorial update: October 8, 2026. Independent HVAC professional review is pending. This tool does not choose equipment, certify efficiency, or calculate heating/cooling loads.
Questions to ask before accepting a quote
- What heating and cooling load calculation supports the proposed capacity? Ask for cooling tons and separate heating capacity.
- Which indoor/outdoor model numbers, efficiency ratings, controls, and warranties are included?
- Are the ducts suitable, and does the price include removal, disposal, permits, electrical connections, and commissioning?
- Which exclusions, taxes, and extra-work charges apply? Obtain comparable written scopes from local contractors.
- Are any incentives available for this exact equipment and address? Verify eligibility separately; this calculator subtracts none.
A quote can exceed the model because of access, equipment selection, duct condition, local fees, emergency scheduling, or work excluded above. A lower quote also needs its scope checked.
Sources and what they support
- BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics: the manifest labels its wage series May 2025, HVAC occupation SOC 49-9021. Used for relative state labor adjustments, not installed prices.
- BEA Regional Price Parities: 2024 goods index in the shipped snapshot. Used as a broad geographic price proxy, not a supplier price list.
- US Department of Energy: heat pump systems: background on system types and existing ductwork. It does not validate this model's prices or multipliers.
Frequently asked questions
Does this estimate cover both a furnace and air conditioner?
The gas furnace + AC option budgets for replacing both as one ducted system with usable existing ducts. It is not a furnace-only or AC-only estimate. The other options use explicit whole-project multipliers.
How is HVAC replacement cost calculated?
The model adjusts a $3,500 labor and $6,500 equipment/materials baseline for state indexes, cooling capacity, budget tier, system type, and month. It adds a state-adjusted $300 permit allowance and 10% contingency. Baselines and multipliers are assumptions, not contractor quotes.
Can I size HVAC from my home's square footage?
No. Ask for a heating and cooling load calculation that accounts for climate, insulation, windows, air leakage, and the home. Cooling tons do not determine furnace heating capacity.
Are ductwork, electrical upgrades, and rebates included?
Major duct replacement, electrical-panel upgrades, fuel conversions, hazardous-material remediation, sales tax, financing, and rebates are excluded. Get those items priced separately. The 10% contingency is not a substitute for known extra work.
Is the displayed range a contractor price guarantee?
No. It is a sensitivity band derived from differences in state wage and goods-price indexes. It is not a confidence interval or a measured local quote range, and bids may fall outside it. The model has not yet been independently reviewed by an HVAC professional.
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